Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| November 01 2020 | 3960 | 30646 | 137 | 21 | 1110 | 1325 |
| November 02 2020 | 4095 | 30734 | 138 | 21 | 1154 | 1421 |
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.9 | 4.4% | 51 | 0.44% | 66 | 0.57% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 14.7 | 13.8% | 161 | 1.18% | 212 | 1.56% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 22.7 | 20.3% | 237 | 1.13% | 307 | 1.47% |
| 30-39 | 22 | 20.3 | 16.8% | 196 | 1.44% | 241 | 1.77% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 12.6 | 11.5% | 134 | 1.28% | 172 | 1.64% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 14.9 | 13.9% | 162 | 1.29% | 202 | 1.61% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 9.6 | 9.8% | 115 | 1% | 144 | 1.25% |
| 70+ | 17 | 12.3 | 9.6% | 112 | 1.07% | 145 | 1.39% |
| All ages | 130 | 111.9 | 100% | 1168 | 1.12% | 1489 | 1.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| November 01 2020 | 1958 | 19236 | 67 | 24 | 679 | 926 |
| November 02 2020 | 2033 | 19273 | 70 | 24 | 715 | 909 |
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.3 | 2.9% | 21 | 0.27% | 29 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 7.4 | 8.9% | 65 | 0.77% | 80 | 0.95% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 9.7 | 12% | 88 | 1.24% | 107 | 1.5% |
| 30-39 | 21 | 13.9 | 17.8% | 130 | 1.55% | 189 | 2.25% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 13.7 | 17.5% | 128 | 1.65% | 179 | 2.31% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 13.1 | 17.6% | 129 | 1.33% | 175 | 1.8% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 9.4 | 13.5% | 99 | 1.18% | 139 | 1.65% |
| 70+ | 8 | 8.6 | 9.7% | 71 | 1% | 100 | 1.41% |
| All ages | 95 | 78.1 | 100% | 731 | 1.13% | 998 | 1.54% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| November 01 2020 | 1320 | 12555 | 54 | 7 | 425 | 539 |
| November 02 2020 | 1388 | 12569 | 61 | 7 | 457 | 585 |
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.6 | 2.9% | 13 | 0.24% | 16 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 5.4 | 11.2% | 51 | 0.94% | 70 | 1.29% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 6.0 | 13.7% | 62 | 1.37% | 81 | 1.79% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 6.6 | 13.4% | 61 | 1.12% | 82 | 1.51% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 7.0 | 14.5% | 66 | 1.33% | 91 | 1.83% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 7.0 | 15.2% | 69 | 1.02% | 91 | 1.34% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 6.0 | 12.3% | 56 | 0.88% | 78 | 1.23% |
| 70+ | 5 | 7.7 | 17.6% | 80 | 1.26% | 91 | 1.44% |
| All ages | 36 | 47.3 | 100% | 454 | 1% | 597 | 1.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| November 01 2020 | 4608 | 33134 | 93 | 23 | 647 | 850 |
| November 02 2020 | 4635 | 33228 | 93 | 23 | 651 | 818 |
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.1 | 2.4% | 17 | 0.14% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 9.0 | 11.7% | 84 | 0.51% | 95 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 17.7 | 24.1% | 172 | 0.81% | 213 | 1% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 10.0 | 12.4% | 89 | 0.65% | 115 | 0.85% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 13.7 | 16.2% | 116 | 0.85% | 134 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 14.0 | 16.6% | 119 | 0.84% | 147 | 1.04% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 8.1 | 9.9% | 71 | 0.5% | 86 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 1 | 5.3 | 6.6% | 47 | 0.36% | 60 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 105 | 79.0 | 100% | 715 | 0.6% | 872 | 0.74% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| November 01 2020 | 16011 | 242765 | 537 | 49 | 2696 | 3502 |
| November 02 2020 | 16207 | 243534 | 541 | 49 | 2652 | 3691 |
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 27 | 17.3 | 5.3% | 155 | 0.26% | 203 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 79 | 43.0 | 13.6% | 398 | 0.56% | 505 | 0.71% |
| 20-29 | 119 | 77.3 | 24% | 704 | 0.68% | 949 | 0.91% |
| 30-39 | 78 | 47.3 | 15.9% | 466 | 0.61% | 633 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 84 | 42.7 | 13.6% | 400 | 0.61% | 547 | 0.83% |
| 50-59 | 58 | 39.0 | 12.5% | 368 | 0.56% | 516 | 0.79% |
| 60-69 | 50 | 24.1 | 7.6% | 222 | 0.41% | 304 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 66 | 24.7 | 7.6% | 224 | 0.46% | 290 | 0.59% |
| All ages | 561 | 315.4 | 100% | 2937 | 0.54% | 3947 | 0.72% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| November 01 2020 | 228863 | 1841205 | 11497 | 2047 | 42763 | 58749 |
| November 02 2020 | 232296 | 1846618 | 11597 | 2050 | 41818 | 58405 |
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 203 | 166.4 | 3.8% | 1642 | 0.26% | 2224 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 615 | 482.1 | 10.4% | 4545 | 0.6% | 6089 | 0.8% |
| 20-29 | 1025 | 779.6 | 17.2% | 7465 | 0.99% | 10151 | 1.34% |
| 30-39 | 969 | 725.3 | 16.1% | 7001 | 0.92% | 9498 | 1.25% |
| 40-49 | 884 | 668.1 | 14.8% | 6452 | 0.92% | 8844 | 1.27% |
| 50-59 | 854 | 726.3 | 16.1% | 6992 | 0.86% | 9736 | 1.19% |
| 60-69 | 603 | 518.0 | 11.5% | 5027 | 0.66% | 6940 | 0.92% |
| 70+ | 618 | 470.7 | 10.1% | 4403 | 0.69% | 6103 | 0.95% |
| All ages | 5771 | 4536.6 | 100% | 43527 | 0.75% | 59585 | 1.02% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 142.3 | 155.8 | 146.7 | 111.9 | 54.7 | 31.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154.4 | 78.1 | 43 | 36.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | 47.3 | 28.7 | 34% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73.8 | 57.4 | 100.1 | 79 | 38 | 26.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.2 | 71.1 | 91.4 | 315.4 | 179.9 | 22% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102.3 | 80.4 | 134.1 | 4536.6 | 3470.3 | 30.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 11.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.42 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2106"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges